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作者：韋忠和

這幾天新聞上出現(xiàn)很常見的一個詞：Ponzi scheme。美國華爾街傳奇人物、納斯達克股票市場公司前董事會主席伯納德·麥道夫11日晨因涉嫌“龐氏騙局”證券欺詐遭警方逮捕。檢察人員指控他通過操縱一只對沖基金給投資者損失大約至少500億美元。

Ponzi scheme 到底是怎么回事呢？查了相關資料，解釋如下：

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that involves paying abnormally high returns to investors out of the money paid in by subsequent investors, rather than from the profit from any real business. It is named after Charles Ponzi. A Ponzi scheme has similarities with a pyramid scheme though the two types of fraud are different.

It usually offers abnormally high short-term returns in order to entice new investors. The perpetuation of the high returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises (and pays) requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going.

The system is destined to collapse because there are little or no underlying earnings from the money received by the promoter. However, the scheme is often interrupted by legal authorities before it collapses, because a Ponzi scheme is suspected and/or because the promoter is selling unregistered securities. As more investors become involved, the likelihood of the scheme coming to the attention of authorities increases.

The scheme is named after Charles Ponzi, who became notorious for using the technique after emigrating from Italy to the United States in 1903. Ponzi was not the first to invent such a scheme, but his operation took in so much money that it was the first to become known throughout the United States. His original scheme was in theory based on arbitraging international reply coupons for postage stamps, but soon diverted later investors’ money to support payments to earlier investors and Ponzi’s personal wealth. Today’s schemes are often considerably more sophisticated than Ponzi’s, although the underlying formula is quite similar and the principle behind every Ponzi scheme is to exploit investor na?veté. However, it has been shown that entering a Ponzi scheme can be rational even at the last round of the scheme if a government will likely bail out those participating in the Ponzi scheme.

用一句話來揭示“龐氏騙局”，就是“拆東墻補西墻”或“借錢還錢”。施騙人以超乎常規(guī)的畸高回報吸引投資者，然后用新投資者的錢償付老投資者，造成高額回 報兌現(xiàn)的假象，再誘騙投資者連本帶利繼續(xù)投資。如此不斷往復，雪球越滾越大，參與者越來越多，受騙資金也累積不斷增長，施騙人得以從中牟取非法暴利。

“龐氏騙局”得名于一個名叫查爾斯·龐茲的意大利商人。龐茲1903年從意大利移民到美國，1920年開始從事投資欺詐，短短半年間便從一個默默無名的窮商人，變成波士頓家喻戶曉的百萬富翁。

龐茲的騙術就是向投資者宣揚國際間郵票的套利交易，他向投資者承諾45天將給予50%的回報，90天則將“讓你的投資翻番”。事實上，龐茲的手法就是將新投資者的錢，償付給前期投資者以及進入自己的腰包。

由于前期投資者“的確”獲得巨大的投資回報，便到處予以宣揚，于是更多新投資者攜帶現(xiàn)金紛至沓來。最終，共有約4萬人投資1500萬美元，當騙局被戳穿時，只有約三分之一的資金償還給投資者。

如今的“龐氏騙局”已比龐茲的騙術復雜得多，但基本原理還是相通的。首先，施騙人會向投資者描繪一個“聽上去很美”的投資方式，如“全球貨幣套利”、“避險期貨交易”、“高回報離岸投資”等，伴隨30天20%高回報的承諾誘惑。

由于沒有過往業(yè)績的證明，最初只會有一小部分的投資者受騙，投入金額不會很多。當30天后收到本金外加20%的利息后，嘗到甜頭的投資者會有更多動力投入更多的錢，并口口相傳引來更多投資者。

顯而易見，整個行騙過程并沒有實質(zhì)的利潤產(chǎn)生，投資者的回報完全是后來者新資金及自己擴大再投資帶來的錢。當投資者D投入資金后，他的錢被當作“利潤”償付給投資者A、B、C，而當投資者X、Y、Z被騙進后，他們的錢又能用來償付投資者A到投資者W。

為最大限度地降低資金鏈繃斷的風險，施騙人會想方設法減少投資人的資金贖回，如規(guī)定一個較長期限的凍結期，這樣施騙人就能有充足的時間吸引新投資者“入甕”。

騙局終有被戳穿的一天，主要是有三方面的原因：施騙人攜款潛逃；規(guī)模超負荷，新資金增速放緩，承諾回報償付出現(xiàn)問題，導致越來越多投資者要求贖回；行騙手法暴露，司法機關介入調(diào)查，發(fā)現(xiàn)所謂的企業(yè)資產(chǎn)根本不存在。

莫道夫事件敗露，緣自一個新的直接導火索，即這場百年一遇的全球金融危機。